AVL's Reimagine Mobility Podcast

AV: Balancing Innovation, Regulation, & Public Acceptance w/ Richard Bishop

• AVL, North America

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Dive into the fascinating journey of autonomous driving with Richard Bishop, a pioneer in the field since 1991. In this episode of the Reimagine Mobility Podcast, we explore the early days of ADAS, the impact of autonomous technologies on various industries, and what the future holds for autonomous vehicles. Join us as we discuss the latest trends, challenges, and opportunities in reimagining mobility.

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Find Richard’s Automated Driving Industry Trends Report available for downloads at www.richardbishopconsulting.com.

 

Richard Bishop has over 25 years of experience in the domain of intelligent, connected, and automated vehicles and how these interact with our transportation system and society, including automated cars, trucks, and robotaxis.  He provides strategic consulting to automotive manufacturers, suppliers, and tech firms, as well as advising federal and state government agencies in the U.S. and abroad. Mr. Bishop serves as 2nd Vice Chair of the American Trucking Association’s Automated Driving Study Group.   He founded the International Task Force on Vehicle Highway Automation, which had its 25th Annual Meeting in 2022.  Prior to establishing Bishop Consulting in 1997, Mr. Bishop was Program Manager for Vehicle-Highway Automation at the USDOT Federal Highway Administration.   He holds engineering degrees from Auburn University and Johns Hopkins University, plus an M.A. in Transformational Leadership and Social Change from Tai-Sophia Institute.

 

Richard Bishop

Principal | Bishop Consulting

+1 443.695.3717

www.RichardBishopConsulting.com

If you would like to be a guest on the show contact: namarketing@avl.com

Hello, everyone, to the latest edition of the Reimagine Mobility Podcast series. I'm here with Richard Bishop from Bishop Consulting. Richard, thanks for joining us here today. Excited to talk to you. You have a tremendous level and years of experience in a variety of different industries at autonomous. I think ADAS will be our focus probably here today. Maybe to start out with. Richard, explain a little bit of your background. Explain a little bit what you're doing today. And then after that, once viewers and listeners have a better idea who we're talking to here, then let's jump in together and reimagine mobility together. Okay? Yes. Stephan, really nice to be invited. Thanks. Thanks for that. And I'm looking forward to our conversation. I've been in the automated driving space since 1991, and people sometimes people almost fall out of their chairs when they hear that. How can that be possible? But I'll I'll save and save you save all the the background there. But it's been happening for a long time. And I'm I was with the U.S. Department of Transportation then. And after a while, as things heated up, I decided to jump out and be a consultant, sort of a strategic guy. And so I've been surfing the wave since really the like DARPA Urban Challenge days and working with the some of the early starter players like Peloton technology and trucking, working with the car manufacturers as as they got into this space and ADAS. and so I, I try to be a guy who's, you know got my arms around Everything that's going on in the space gets harder and harder and try to bring a level of, you know, sort of settled just feet on the ground, not too crazy hand-waving sort of stuff and bring a perspective. So that's that's what I do and I'm I've been pleased to that has been valuable to folks over the years. Very good and so perfect. So you just said you you're the guy is trying to put your arms around things. I think those arms are way longer wingspan than any NBA player. I probably know what. But let's use this as a metaphor and let's say, how much did you have to get your arms around in 1991 that you said you already started with with autonomous? Yeah. Contrast that with today. I think that would be a fantastic story. I and we're not looking yet into the future. We're just looking into the past. Yeah. And how over the last 91 now we have to do we have to do math in 33 years. Yeah. We move to today. How much wider, bigger, stronger. Your arms had to be here. You share a little bit about that, Richard. What a great question. Well, I came in from a DOD, like I said, and I was the first electronic engineer they had hired and the Federal Highway Administration and the previous 20 years. You know, so I was seen as a guru because I knew a system engineering was and fancy things like that. I knew what GPS was. And that was a very energetic time because they were developing this idea of intelligent vehicle highway systems and this classic idea that if the cars interact with the roadway in various ways, everything gets better traffic and and you name it. But it was also a kind of a frothy time because a lot of money of federal money was shifting out of defense and into civilian because the Berlin Wall had just come down. And so a big old program came into our our our office Congress told us to do an automated highway system. That was the terminology then. And I was that EE they just hired. So they said, hey, that's this for you, Richard. They'll do it. And we did an amazing activity that's really not that well known. We a consortium was formed with General Motors at the lead as well as Delco. At the time we had Carnegie Mellon University, we had UC Berkeley, you know, all sorts players, Caltrans, and we did a major demo as directed by Congress. You can go to YouTube Demo 97 San Diego. And there there we are on I-15 running automated vehicles. And so back to your question in in a sense, you know, I thought we were the only thing in town, but the Europeans had done work in the late eighties in that. And of course, the old timers were I was working at Federal Highway Administration. They could go back to the early eighties where there was a major program working with Ohio State University that for some reason when Ronald Reagan became president, he thought that was kind of silly and axed it. But it was really hot. And that was ten years before and things before that. So, so now, as you say, contrast it with now and it's, you know, it's funny, it was crazy frothy maybe three years ago. Maybe that was the, the peak of the froth on. And some of the companies were in a way, of course, with the maturing of many of these companies is really impressive. Waymo being one and Robotaxi the way level three we can get into this later. But a level three operations for passenger car was like a thing and then it wasn't a thing and now it's a thing again. What were some good reasons? And, and yet then there's this sort of very low level thing going on of, look, startups keep popping up because you can almost buy in a decent automated driving capability off the shelf. And then you it's all about your business approach. So that's kind of fun and that's it's really that's the hardest thing in my job is keeping track of all those guys. Interesting. So let's, let's go back to 2019, right where I felt like there was not a single OEM out there, at least in Europe and in the U.S. Asia, you heard a little bit less about it, at least from my perspective. Yeah, there was not an OEM in the Western world that didn't say by 21 latest a Richard latest 22, you will drive autonomously, right? Clearly. Then over the next few years, less and less and less and less people talked about it. The next thing that you knew is Argo. AI goes away, VW Ford no longer interested in and at least seemingly. Right. And now we're here today. For me, it was always interesting to see these strong proclamations that then didn't follow through because I always kind of felt like we were 90% there and still 90% away. Right. And I'm not sure this has changed. Yeah. Yeah. What I want to know from you is still I feel it has changed from the perspective as we refocus on passengers to level three, as you mentioned just now and on heavy duty and certainly off road agricultural, we're still pushing level four, if not level five, certainly in agriculture, we've seen some tremendous technologies that a John Deere, Case, New Holland. Right. Caterpillar has deployed almost unbeknownst to the world. There is automation going on to levels we're not realizing, right? Yeah, Yeah. How do you see that? You see it similar this transformation from passenger vehicles leading the pack to passenger vehicles going back to more ADAS up to level three and then the heavy duty truck guys really taking the lead and saying there is a business case we can do. It is the reason or why behind it, etc., etc.. Really interested in your perspective on yeah, beautifully framed. Yeah. You know, in the truck side, in the freight side in general, it's level four. You know, there is no point in talking about level three. It's about removing the driver and there's economic reasons to do that. Safety too, but mean mainly economic. And that's why there's so much money in that. And there are very solid players. I was just at CES talk. Was there Aurora, Kodiak, plus these this is serious engineering. You know, these all these companies have really matured and they've got partnerships across the tier ones. It's really solid stuff on the car side. Yeah, there there was that frothiness, I think if I remember the name right, it was the Audi CEO that Scott Keough I remember his name right. He said, and at CES, I don't know, at least five years ago, hey, we're going to by 2020, you know, level four fully automated vehicles, maybe even before 2015 when that happened. So, yeah, that's that's behind us. You know, for a while there, the the auto OEMs were really getting into Robotaxi and Mercedes partnered with Bosch, for instance, and that was there was a turning point there because right about at the exact time that Bosch was going to start running these Mercedes vehicles in San Jose, California, they were about to launch and that's when Mercedes formally pulled back, says, no, we're not doing that anymore. And I feel so sorry for those engineers, you know, ready to launch that now. So what there's a little bit left. Volkswagen in the study I just published, you know, they're still pretty serious about their robotaxi. They're more Yeah. And they see that moving towards passenger car at some point. Toyota also has really pulled back from their their woven city activity. And at the same time, there's still talk in level four there. Those are big companies. There's only two of them, but those are big companies. And they they may go their GM pulled back as well from, you might recall, Ultra Cruise, which was like a level two hands off on the streets at all. Most streets. And it was very ambitious. I didn't expect that to even show up. And it did. And now they pulled back from that because of the hassles and problems with Cruise. Yeah, Yeah. So that brings me to the next question. Perfect entry here, Richard. So Ultra Cruise or whatever system we want to call it, not just on major highways but on major streets right? Is it a pause that we're seeing? So we shall finish it or we shelving it for a year or two? Are we shelving it because of technical reasons? Are we shelving or pausing it because of societal pressure saying, hey, you killed somebody, you drag somebody in this case or we shall finish it. But you're thinking it's more like in five or ten years because OEMs or companies are scared or we shelving it because the technology is not there. I hear a lot of different people on it. Very interesting from your perspective. One, on what you're doing here. Thanks. Thanks for that, because I make this point whenever I can that the Robotaxi players, one player had a really rough fourth quarter of 2023 and that was Cruise. Nevertheless, it's what they had was was and is very effective self-driving technology very effective and and yet things happened and they did need to do a reset and they did need to do a safety culture reset management leadership reset. However, sticking with Cruise for a moment, you know, to do a reset of culture, while it's not easy, doesn't take years and you know, if your technology was fundamentally flawed, you're going to spend years to do that. So I think Cruise will be back within some time this year, middle of this year, in a very humbled way. I think things are just vastly different. Mary Barra looks at it very differently, but but hasn't turned it off Well. So we're we're going to continue to see this a very strong level four robotaxi activity happen. And in some cases, that's backed by or part of a passenger car OEM such that they'll they'll be pulling from that. I just think that the the the fast car OEMs are much more sober about it or subdued and they know it's not existential for them. Yeah. Level three two to me is the is sort of the holy Grail in the sense that for the first time after all this ADAS, you really can do something else with your brain or a large portion, if not all of the trip. Yeah. And if customers are getting that, you know, they're but that's, that's, that is the huge utility of it. Yeah sure that won't full level four anywhere at some point but but that's level three is a very big deal for a retail product and I completely agree. I drive a level two, level two plus on highways and I believe cruise without me can advertising here. But it works very well. My commute is an hour and out of that hour I'm on a highway, probably 45 minutes. If I have that 45 minutes to truly do my emails in the morning and in the evening, going home, I mean, that is feel sure a tremendous valuable thing to to buy as part of a vehicle. Right. So if we take that for a moment and you made the comment about GM or Cruise, which I think is true for many of the more serious, reputable and the ones that have shown the technology working in the field. Right. I would say as engineers or as technology geeks appreciate the technology and look at the data. I'm saying besides all the heartfelt and very sad things that happen, accidents, we can still make a point that those things driving things to vehicles are still maybe safe for them. The human driver, you know, and there's a lot I know there's a lot of data on the engine that produces even more data for counter points and pro points or whatever. But how do we get to a totally different question for you? How do we get the public to embrace the technology and not just see the flaws? Because we can call about our flaws here on the call in a heartbeat, right? I can call Jay's flays, He can call my flaws. It's natural, right? We're not perfect. So there will nothing be ever perfect. And certainly me as a driver, I'm by far not perfect. But how do we get the general population? How are we get to non-technical people, right? Which is still the majority of the world, The majority of us, and that's a good thing. But how do we get them convinced, Right? I mean, we have the problem with electric vehicles. We have to convince the general public the hydrogen is another one start stop systems. Quite frankly, in the U.S., we probably still have to educate people that not only have nickel install, it's okay, you know? Yeah. What's wrong with her car? Yeah. How do how do we do this when it comes to autonomous Both both on the trucking side, right. Because I hear a lot of people say I better not be driving next to a semi that's autonomous, so I'm going to slam on the brakes and then drive away because I'm so scared. How do we get the public educated and not just educated but comfortable with this? And Stephen, it's it's it's data. You know, it's magnitude of data. And Waymo has been very good in publishing highly regarded technical papers about, you know, their their track record. They're up to 7 million driverless miles. Now compare that to ten years ago who would have thought but 7 million driverless passenger miles with the public inside those vehicles. And Cruise put out some pretty good data, not that not as definitive. And nevertheless, 7 million miles, that doesn't cut it. You know, compare it because the niche, you know, the crash fatality statistics are always per 100 million miles. So we will get there gradually I think on the on the truck side, it is it's obviously different because they haven't gone to a full driverless mode yet, at least the long haul. Guys, there's one one company Gatik that's doing that in short haul. No. And and this does appear to be the year in which full driverless will be out there from at least three truck AV companies and that's Aurora, Kodiak and Gatik with their next generation driverless system, which is scalable. So we're in this in-between place that things look are pointing in the right direction. We need a lot more data. Do you, do you think, because we had that at the beginning of of EVs, right, were were OEMs or hostile suppliers as well? We're always told make sure there's no access to to make sure there's no fires because we don't want this technology to be hindered by a public spectacle. So to speak, of of one isolated incidents. Right. Yeah. Do you think there's a certain hesitancy in the EV space as well because of this, or is it really all tied together with the same as we've just talked about? We just need more data and we can only get this by going out. So we have to be brave in going out. What, what what do you see there? Yeah, I think it's the latter. We have to continue to be brave and be out there. Brave in a sober way, you know? And Waymo seems to be just the gold standard for that right now. And Aurora is is one of the strong ones in terms of reporting data and in a nicely packaged way. Yeah, yeah. Just be be the be the big the big boy the big guy who's who says, look, I'm going to do this responsibly. It's not going to be flashy. It's not going to be flashy. Just one one day at a time. Three more questions. One is, over the last few years, he heard more and more that China, even in the AV space, is is pulling away from the US in Europe, similar to what people are saying they do in the in the EV space or at least in the battery technology space. Right. Do you see this story with all the different people you're talking to or do you see it maybe different that we have different regulations and laws that allows the Chinese maybe to be more brave if you want to use that word again or be more adventurous or pushing technology more or. Yeah, yeah. How can you see that? Yeah. Remember you asked me at the beginning, where is it hard to keep my arms around was happening in China is very hard to figure out is it's kind of a more, more frothy environment in terms of news reports and this and that. It's hard to suss that out. No, I'm I'm convinced there's some real stuff, very strong legit stuff going on over there. And it's been interesting to see that. And in my study of ADAS that that I did the last few months, that the some of the car companies they'll go from their home market was this maybe was Hyundai or Japan and for level three rather than going from their home market straight to the U.S., they go to China, which is so much going on there, particularly because L-3 and these other advanced systems show up on their premium electric vehicle. And if it's electric, there's a whole nother reason to go to China on that. There's I've heard talk that I am skeptical of that, that the Chinese government is going to equip highways and really make everything go faster because they're doing that. And they they may or may not do that. But, you know, that's just not needed for automated cars. So that's an example of the the frothiness. Okay. Okay. When when you look at Europe and that's news, Europe and U.S. because again, let's let's leave China out for the moment because of your your what you just mentioned. Difficult to to assess a little bit to some degree but passenger vehicle and heavy duty trucking. Right. Both each of them. Which which players do you see as leaders in those two areas, both in Europe and the U.S. and and why maybe at least with a short explanation, you know passenger vehicle I'm it's all about L-3 and right the ones in play right now you know with product imminent product is BMW Mercedes Volvo I think that's everybody I feel like I'm missing somebody and they're they're ready to go but the the tech works it's a matter of easing in with the regulatory environment wherever they are. It's pretty straightforward in Europe, which is how it always is. Things move slowly there, but you know where you stand now in the U.S. the other way around proves. Yeah, but I think I've been saying lately that yeah, Mercedes is is you know, getting permission in the U.S. from Nevada and California. That doesn't mean that much is because you don't need permission in any other state. There's because a whole nother thing, you know, federal government role. But Mercedes hasn't said this, but I think they're going to spread to lots of states, if not the whole country, by like the end of this year, because the tech is ready for that. And as I understand it, the tech is there for full speed range, not just traffic jam assist. It's a matter of them flicking a switch and and it's got it's out there. Yeah so it's the tech is ready it's just a matter of sort of tiptoeing through the the early regulatory space. Yeah. Well that trucking I guess on, on trucking I think Aurora is, is super strong and they're more out there with information because they're a publicly traded company. But others who are equally strong don't quite put as much info out there. Torc, owned by Daimler Trucks very, very strong and in the media in the short haul be to be world Garik that I mentioned they are just raking in the customers. The customers see the value of running a box truck ten, 20, 4080 miles but it logistically that works and they're doing it with an automated level four vehicle. So when it comes to freight, you start, you know, it all starts splitting up and all the use cases, but there's good strong business to be made in all of these places. Well, I just had one more question before I come to my final one, Richard, and you alluded to a little bit. Right. Europe, it takes a long time. Then you have a regulation and then the regulation sits and doesn't change. So you can plan for it. You know, when you execute something, you can deploy it. Not always the case in the U.S., Right. Some time, depending on who's in the White House, sometimes depending on who's in Congress, Senate, making changes, who's pushing, who's not. I've heard both sides when it comes to autonomous technology. One side said we need regulation so we can have something we can test against, something we can defend ourselves against from a legal perspective, because regulations come with a framework. Yeah, that really helps the acceleration of technology innovation as we reimagine mobility and other ones are saying, No, we don't, because once regulations is dead and everybody just focuses on just meeting that regulation and you're you're constricting. So and to some degree innovation, what do you believe is true? Well, you know, we talked early on about the froth of 5 to 7 years ago. If not for that froth we would be nowhere right now. And that is because of lack of regulations or anything stopping things. And it's not for that venture capital fueled froth. Where would the OEMs be? They might just be thinking about it in the research lab right now. That's true. Is there an OEMs business model is to sell cars, you know, and you're successful, you know, for truck OEMs? Yeah, I think so. I think the nature of the U.S. environment has been vitally important to movement and maturity to get us where we are now with automated driving. And certainly, as you just mentioned, it never helps that you have investors and companies willing to spend a lot of money to advance the technology or becoming leaders in the technology. Right. As Richard mentioned, that always has been always an advantage to the U.S. capital markets to to advanced technologies. Yeah. Last question for you. It's been great. different question. What's going to be your next car you buy and why the are the next car will be a level three car. I'm not Mercedes standard is that what you're saying you're going to buy a mercedes. Yeah. Then I've got, I got some angst because I have clients in the OEMs face that that ever got L three out there already. Yeah. So Yeah that's, that's I'll have to figure that one out. Okay. Yeah. I'm ready for that. And I'm actually a real quick guy. My first, you know advanced ADAS car was a 2015 Infiniti Q50 which had lane centering and I think the first vehicle in the U.S. to have lane centering it was so early that nobody even thought about hands on wheel detection. You know think not an issue. So I can I can drive this thing and you know on the interstate for hours at a time with no driver inputs on my palms. So at least I have that here. But yeah, I'm ready for level three. All right. Very good. Well, thank you so much, Richard. Very insightful. Thank you for your your expertise and insights here and for your long arms helping us reach around this end and help us reimagine mobility together here. Thank you.